Prophets & Losses: Predicting the Market is a Losing Proposition

WHAT IS OCCAM’S RAZOR? Occam’s Razor is a principle attributed to William Occam, a 14th century philosopher. He stressed that explanations must not be multiplied beyond what is necessary. Thus, Occam’s Razor is a term used to “shave off” or dismiss superfluous…

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The Value of Financial Advice

I am often asked whether it is worth the cost to hire a financial advisor. After all, they charge you money to make you money. People say they can listen to the news and know where and how to invest, so, “Wouldn’t I be better off just keeping that fee for myself?” That is an excellent question with an answer that depends on many factors.

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Is a High CAPE Cause for Alarm? Part 1: CAPE’s Relationship to Stock Returns

Market predictors have taken many forms over the years, but no formula or person has ever gotten it completely right. The market is unpredictable. That’s just the way it is. But that hasn’t stopped people from trying, and it doesn’t necessarily mean we should ignore them all.

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Rob Arnott’s Problem with Target-Date Funds (and Why I Disagree)

Human capital theory says young people’s wealth is mostly in the form of future earnings, giving them the liberty to invest their relatively smaller portfolios more aggressively. This capacity tends to diminish with age. It is here that target-date funds find their basis, and it is also where Rob Arnott and I disagree about the value of such funds

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