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How the Fed Impacts Your Investments

how the fed affects your investments

The financial media loves talking about changes in the target for the Federal Funds Rate. What the financial media want to talk about and what actually matters don’t overlap much. Let’s take a look at how changes in the Federal Funds Rate actually impact your investments.

A Warning to the Advisory Profession: DALBAR’s Math is Wrong

Boston-based DALBAR has published updates of its “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior” study annually since 1994. The study is meant to educate investors about how the returns they earn generally lag behind the returns for market indices widely reported in the media. The study analyzes the sources of poor investor performance, finding that the bad […]

The Hunt For Duration-Matched Bond Funds

The Hunt for Duration-Matched Bond Funds

In basic asset allocation for wealth accumulation, matching assets to liabilities is not a priority. The retirement liability (the desire to meet a spending goal in retirement) is not part of the analysis.

What Do TIPS Tell Us About Future Inflation Rates?

Today, I want to talk about what TIPS can tell us about inflation. Exhibit 1 shows the TIPS yield curve for January 3, 2017. Yields are negative for TIPS maturing prior to 2022, and positive beyond that, although the longest ones do not even reach 1%. The Treasury stopped issuing thirty-year TIPS in the early 2000s and, more recently, eliminated twenty-year TIPS. That is why you see gaps in the yield curve—represented by dashed lines in the exhibit—with no TIPS maturity in 2030-31 and 2033-39.

How Far Should You Trust Market Models?

We use models all the time. We are constantly making decisions based on them – everything from simple heuristics (nachos taste good), all the way up to (and including) quantum mechanics. They’re great tools for helping us understand and make sense of the world. But it’s important to understand their limitations and the dangers of […]