How Much Should We Depend On The Stock Market?
Simple analyses, which look to historical returns as estimates for what retirees should expect in the future, tend to provide an incomplete picture that may overstate the potential for stocks relative to other strategies. We will investigate some of the adjustments that should be made to historical returns to obtain a better idea about the […]
Unpacking Today’s Market Returns
Today, March 9th, 2020, was a bad day for the financial markets. There are four main elements to this story that I want to pick apart…
Inflation, Deflation, Confiscation & Devastation- The Four Horsemen Of Risk
Noted financial advisor and historian William Bernstein makes a compelling case for stocks in his e-book Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design. In the introduction, Bernstein begins by offering an operational definition of risk. Risk is the size of real capital loss times the duration of real capital loss. This gets at the idea […]
What To Make of Market Volatility
In recent days, the significant market decline has resulted in renewed anxiety for many of you (I know this is blatantly obvious but stick with us). While it may be difficult to remain calm during a substantial market decline, it is important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing. Additionally, for long-term […]
Lessons For The Next Crisis
“I find your lack of faith disturbing.” I gotta say, we agree with Darth Vadar on this one. When times of crisis arise, people naturally have a range of emotions, including fear, panic, and mistrust. This can lead to behaviors that directly contradict long-term saving strategies. It’s important to take a moment, and remember your […]
The Coronavirus and Your Investments
The Coronavirus is scary. When it’s possible to make reasonable comparisons with the Spanish Flu, that should make you sit up and take notice. Aside from the reasonable precautions that you should be taking, what should you be doing to protect your investments from the disruptions that the Coronavirus may cause? We’ve already seen significant […]
The Case for Stocks
The case for using an aggressive investment portfolio with a high stock allocation to fund retirement expenses rests on the idea that it will probably work. Stocks are expected to outperform bonds, and if and when that happens, a retiree will be able to spend more from their asset base in retirement. For example, in […]
Modern Portfolio Theory – Part Two
This article is part of a series; click here to read Part One. Efficient frontier diagrams do not actually show the asset allocations of portfolios on the efficient frontier, but this information is also available. Exhibit 1.3 provides an example of ten portfolios on the efficient frontier shown in Exhibit 1.2. These range from the […]
What is Modern Portfolio Theory? And Why Does it Matter?
Investing is fundamental to retirement planning. For many of us the long term growth from our investments is one of the primary sources of our income in retirement. So deciding how to invest is crucial. Since the financial markets are reasonably efficient, we can’t systematically beat the market. Deciding how we will structure our portfolio […]
Historical Market Returns – Part Two
This article is part of a series; click here to read Part One. Moving to bonds, Morningstar data shows that since 1926, the average return from intermediate-term government bonds was 5.2 percent with a standard deviation of 5.6 percent. With the lower volatility, the compounded return is only slightly less at 5.1 percent. For long-term […]
