Why Can’t ‘Winning’ Active Managers Keep on Winning?
The numbers show that active management simply doesn’t work. There are several arguments against active fund managers, but one of the most damning is that winners don’t seem to repeat.
Are Republicans or Democrats Better for the Stock Market?
Every four years we talk about how this year’s Presidential election is the most important ever. Along the way, people make a whole host of sweeping statements about how picking their team will lead to all of the good things happening, but picking the other team will lead to all of the bad things happening […]
How Long is the Long Term?
Everyone always talks about investing (and planning) for the long term. But they’re usually vague about what the “long term” actually means. Does that mean 5 years? 10 years? More? (Spoiler: the answer is definitely more). And frankly, talking about how you need to focus on the long term can feel like a bit of […]
Occam’s – How Do Interest Rates Affect Stock Returns?
The financial media loves to talk about interest rates. There are a lot of good reasons for this, but two of the big ones are that interest rates are really important, and they’re relatively understandable and have a direct connection to most people’s lives. They are tied to the mortgage rate you can get, the […]
What Does the GameStop Kerfuffle Mean?
It’s been a pretty wild ride with GameStop. But while there has been a lot happening, does it actually mean much? We’ve examined the details of what happened elsewhere, so I’m going to focus on some of the bigger questions that this whole affair raises, and specifically how this all impacts long-term investors. So let’s […]
Is the Value Premium Pining for the Fjords?
There’s no magic formula for investing. The financial markets seem to take some sort of cosmic joy in bringing people back down to Earth. And it’s value investing’s turn – in fact, it’s been value investing’s turn for a while now. To put it mildly, this has been a rough decade and a half for value stocks.
What Do Low Interest Rates Mean for Stock Returns?
Interest rates are one of the key tools that the Federal Reserve has to manage the economy. Changing how much it costs to borrow money can slow down an economy or give a the economy a nudge.
Adjustments For A Conservative Return Assumption
Consider three scenarios: An individual investing a lump-sum amount for thirty years An individual saving a fixed percentage of a constant inflation-adjusted salary at the end of each year over a thirty-year accumulation period An individual withdrawing the maximum sustainable constant inflation-adjusted amount from a portfolio at the start of each year over a thirty-year […]
A Guide to a Conservative Return Assumption
A simple approach for building a financial plan is to decide on a rate of return for the investment portfolio and to plug that value into a spreadsheet to represent assumed asset growth. Historical data may be used to calculate historical average returns for different asset classes, which are then combined to create the overall […]
Planning For The Future – What About Bond Yields?
Adjustments for Current Bond Yields An important consideration is that current interest rates are lower than the historical averages. The historical average return is not relevant for someone seeking to estimate future market returns from today’s starting point. The general problem with attempting to gain insights from the historical outcomes is that future market returns […]
