How Long is the Long Term?
Everyone always talks about investing (and planning) for the long term. But they’re usually vague about what the “long term” actually means. Does that mean 5 years? 10 years? More? (Spoiler: the answer is definitely more). And frankly, talking about how you…Read More
Occam’s – How Do Interest Rates Affect Stock Returns?
The financial media loves to talk about interest rates. There are a lot of good reasons for this, but two of the big ones are that interest rates are really important, and they’re relatively understandable and have a direct connection to most…Read More
What Does the GameStop Kerfuffle Mean?
It’s been a pretty wild ride with GameStop. But while there has been a lot happening, does it actually mean much? We’ve examined the details of what happened elsewhere, so I’m going to focus on some of the bigger questions that this…Read More
Is the Value Premium Pining for the Fjords?
There’s no magic formula for investing. The financial markets seem to take some sort of cosmic joy in bringing people back down to Earth. And it’s value investing’s turn – in fact, it’s been value investing’s turn for a while now. To put it mildly, this has been a rough decade and a half for value stocks.Read More
What Do Low Interest Rates Mean for Stock Returns?
Interest rates are one of the key tools that the Federal Reserve has to manage the economy. Changing how much it costs to borrow money can slow down an economy or give a the economy a nudge.Read More
Adjustments For A Conservative Return Assumption
Consider three scenarios: An individual investing a lump-sum amount for thirty years An individual saving a fixed percentage of a constant inflation-adjusted salary at the end of each year over a thirty-year accumulation period An individual withdrawing the maximum sustainable constant inflation-adjusted…Read More
A Guide to a Conservative Return Assumption
A simple approach for building a financial plan is to decide on a rate of return for the investment portfolio and to plug that value into a spreadsheet to represent assumed asset growth. Historical data may be used to calculate historical average…Read More
Planning For The Future – What About Bond Yields?
Adjustments for Current Bond Yields An important consideration is that current interest rates are lower than the historical averages. The historical average return is not relevant for someone seeking to estimate future market returns from today’s starting point. The general problem with…Read More
What To Do When Markets Plummet – Investor Behavior Gap
Another concern is whether investors are disciplined enough to stay the course with the investment strategy in order to earn the underlying index market returns. Studies on retirement spending from investment portfolios typically assume that retirees are rational investors who rebalance right…Read More
Making Your Investments Work For You: Things To Consider
Inflation We must remove inflation so the numbers allow for a better understanding of purchasing power growth. Real returns will be less because they preserve the purchasing power of wealth over time. Providing the discussion in terms of real returns allows us…Read More
Unpacking Today’s Market Returns
Today, March 9th, 2020, was a bad day for the financial markets. There are four main elements to this story that I want to pick apart…Read More
The Coronavirus and Its Effects on the Market and Your Retirement
Just like many other areas of life, the novel Coronavirus is having a significant impact on the financial markets.Read More